¡¡¡¡In the first quarter of 2008, China¡¯s economy continued to maintain steady and rapid development; the growth rate was 10.6%, down by 1.1 % from the previous year. During the same period, ports on the Yangtze River trunk completed 228 million tons of throughput, a 7% increase. However, the growth rate slowed by 8%. Specifically, foreign trade shared 28.459 million tons, up by 13.7%, with a growth rate decrease of 2.7%. Also, container throughput reached 383,000 TEU, up by 20.3%, and a slowed growth rate of 16%. Waterway inter-provincial Ro-Ro transportation carried 104,000 vehicles, a significant increase of 19.5%.

¡¡¡¡The western region sees the most increase

¡¡¡¡In the first quarter, of the 7 port groups along Yangtze River, Sichuan, Chongqing, Hubei, Anhui and Jiangsu experienced increases in cargo throughput, while Hunan and Jiangxi suffered a decrease. Chongqing underwent the highest increase, and Hunan experienced the largest decline. Jiangsu maintained its leadership, with foreign trade and container throughput of 26.182 million tons and 1.044 million TEU respectively. These represented 15.1% and 20.1% y-o-y growths, and comprised 92% and 75.5% respectively of the total volume made by ports along the Yangtze River trunk. Interestingly, the throughput in foreign trade decreased slightly and container volume smoothly increased.

¡¡¡¡Volume for key materials transport varies

¡¡¡¡Iron ore: strong growth
¡¡¡¡In the surveyed session, iron ore throughput completed by the Yangtze River key ports was 52.893 million tons, up by 22.1%; the y-o-y growth rate also increased by 6.6%, representing 23.2% of the total cargo throughput on the Yangtze. This increased 3.2% in comparison with its representation at the same time last year. Thus, iron ore has ranked the most essential transport category for ports along the Yangtze.

¡¡¡¡Coal: minor decline in proportion
¡¡¡¡From January to March, the Yangtze major ports completed 45.369 million tons of coal throughput, an increase of 3.8%; however, the growth rate decreased by 25.5%. This accounted for 19.9% among all categories, a slightly lower ratio, which shrinked coal to the second largest category transported.
¡¡¡¡The port group of ¡°Pukou, Yuxikou, Hankou and Zhicheng¡± collectively transited 5.12 million tons of coal, up by 11.9%. For Pukou, Yuxikou, Hankou and Zhicheng, the respective coal throughputs were 1.435, 2.231, 1.049 and 0.405 million tons, representing 114.7%, 114.3%, 113.1% and 91.7% of last year¡¯s volume. With the exception of Zhicheng Port, these ports therefore experienced significant increases in their coal shipment volume.

¡¡¡¡Oil and its products: continued decline
¡¡¡¡By March, throughput of oil and its products reached 15.936 million tons, down by 7.5%. With this representing 6.99% of all cargo categories transported on the Yangtze River, the declining trend in share has continued. Nanjing Port transited 1.232 million tons of crude oil from the ocean to the Yangtze, a decrease of 38%. This was largely due to decreased demand for crude oil by Anqing Petrochemical, Sinopec Jiujiang and Changling Petrochemical.

¡¡¡¡Steady growth in cargo shipping volume

¡¡¡¡During the same period, most of the major shipping companies concerned greatly developed their cargo shipping volume. China Changjiang National Shipping (Group) Corporation achieved 32.48 million tons and a freight turnover of 44.1 billion tons km; these figures are respectively 104.1% and 96.5% of the corresponding amounts at the same time last year. Its container transport volume achieved 140,000 TEU and delivered 75,000 commodity vehicles, resulting in y-o-y growth of 50.8% and 30.9% respectively. Minsheng Shipping Company had a total volume of 920,600 tons  and cargo turnover of 1.946 billion tons km, increases of 31.3% and 33.0% respectively. Its container volume remained 54,300 TEU and 44,900 commodity vehicles were transported simultaneously, resulting in significant growth of 44.6% and 34.6% respectively.

¡¡¡¡Prosperity maintained

¡¡¡¡The Yangtze River waterway shipping was generally stable during the first quarter, with a Prosperity Index of 116.88 indicating a booming season. Meanwhile, the Shipping Confidence Index was 130.45, during a reasonably good phase in which terminal and shipping companies remained optimistic about the macroeconomic situation. The Shipping Business Index for the upper and middle reaches were 114.63 and 114.35 respectively, both showing even better trends compared with the past period and the same period last year. However, the indicator for the lower reaches was 118.71, lower than that of the past surveyed period, but nonetheless better than the same period last year.
¡¡¡¡There were no signs of an off season from January to March in Yangtze River shipping, with the Prosperity Index reaching 120.85. This was a satisfying result, depicting an overall situation that is an improvement on both the past period and the same period last year. The Prosperity Index for each individual shipping aspect were: dry bulk: 117.19 (the prosperous phase, better than both the last period and the same period last year);liquid bulk: 101.45 (the critical phase, better than both the last period also the same period last year);foreign trade: 118.18 (the prosperous phase, worse than the previous period, but better than the same period last year);container: 113.44 (the prosperous phase, worse than the previous period, but better than the same period last year); and Ro-Ro transport of commodity vehicle: 123.71 (the prosperous phase, worse than the previous period, but better than the same period last year).

¡¡¡¡A golden second quarter to come

¡¡¡¡In the second quarter, the Yangtze River will welcome its golden production season, with favorable channel, water and climate conditions. Main key goods categories should experience a substantial growth in shipping volume. With the advent of Summer, this will particularly be the case with coal, as riverside power plants, especially in the East China, experience ongoing increasing demand.  Given this, it is expected that the transit of coal along the Yangtze River will gradually rebound. On the other hand, the second quarter is the time when a year¡¯s orders in either foreign or internal trade are conducted. Together with China¡¯s continuous adjustment in industrial structure and product mix, there is likely to be increasing cargo supply for containerized transportation. Consequently, both foreign trade and container traffic should show greater growth.
¡¡¡¡Compared with the first quarter, it is expected that both the Yangtze River shipping business Prosperity Index and Confidence Index will increase respectively to 118.76 and 130.62, and that over the next three months the Yangtze River shipping will maintain a steady upward trend. The Prosperity Index is expected to rise to 127.64, reaching a prosperous phase. Specifically:dry bulk, heading for 121.11, rising trend;liquid bulk, heading for 120.25, rising trend;foreign trade, heading for 116.13, maintaining the current booming situation;container transport, heading for 127.22, a prosperous phase; andRo-Ro transport of commodity vehicle, heading for 129.29, a prosperous phase.